Sunday, December 5, 2021


Bitcoin (BTC) faces the prospects of reaching $47,500-$50,000 based mostly on its present development’s eerie similarity with the one in June by December 2019.

2019 Bitcoin fractal

Intimately, Bitcoin topped out around $14,000 on June 26, 2019, earlier than turning decrease for the rest of the 12 months on profit-taking sentiment, and in addition to FUD sparked by the Bitcoin Money hardfork, Fb’s stand-off with regulators over its crypto mission Libra, after which U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s threatening tone on Bitcoin.

The flagship cryptocurrency crashed to close $6,500 in December 2019. In doing so, it prompted its 50-day easy shifting common (SMA) to flip under its 200-day SMA, a phenomenon that technical chartists name a “death cross” and see its formation as an indication of prolonged sell-offs forward.

However, on the similar time, Bitcoin bulls held the worth above the 50-week SMA. The cryptocurrency’s one-day chart confirmed bears’ makes an attempt to crash the worth under its 50-week SMA. However bulls purchased these dips each time.

Willful purchase actions close to the 50-week SMA later led to a robust upside rebound in direction of the 61.8% Fib stage that constituted a dropdown Fibonacci retracement graph, drawn from across the $14,000-swing excessive to roughly the$6,500-swing low.

Bitcoin 2019 worth motion. Supply:

The 2019 fractal additionally illustrated at the very least two bullish divergence eventualities, whereby the Bitcoin worth fashioned decrease lows whereas its each day relative power indicator, a price-momentum oscillator, made decrease highs. It hinted weak point within the prevailing bearish momentum. And because it turned out, the worth soared later.


In 2021, Bitcoin reconstructed the 2019 state of affairs midway. At first, the cryptocurrency’s correction from its document excessive of almost $65,000 landed BTC/USD proper on the similar 50-week SMA help round $30,000. On the similar time, its transfer decrease enabled a loss of life cross setup.

Bitcoin’s worth motion previously week additionally hinted at a bullish divergence state of affairs, as proven within the chart under.

Bitcoin’s April-June worth motion. Supply:

TradingShot, a market analytics platform, noted {that a} bullish divergence formation, coupled with a rebound from the 50-week SMA help, might once more ship Bitcoin costs to the 61.8% Fib stage of the present top-to-bottom Fibonacci retracement graph.

“The help of the 1W MA50 is essential as it’s being achieved regardless of Bitcoin being on Decrease Lows (LL) whereas the 1D RSI is on Greater Lows (HL),” he defined.

“This can be a Bullish Divergence and was additionally seen throughout October and late November-early Dec 2019. This divergence was sufficient to begin the rebound to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement stage.”

Bitcoin 2019 and 2021 fractal. Supply:

In a chart supplied by TradingShot, the 61.8% Fib stage appeared close to $47,500. In the meantime, the opposite chart above confirmed the revenue goal close to $50,000.


The statements appeared as Bitcoin closed its second quarter at a 41% loss, logging its worst declines for the reason that 43% sell-off within the fourth quarter of 2018. The cryptocurrency’s current drop took cues from a flurry of destructive fundamentals, together with China’s crackdown on the crypto trade, international regulators rising their scrutiny, and in addition to Elon Musk’s anti-Bitcoin tweets.

In the meantime, demand for Bitcoin additionally declined after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone. The U.S. central financial institution introduced that it’d hike its benchmark rates of interest by the top of 2023 to curb inflationary pressures, coinciding with a BTC/USD charge plunge on June 16 and afterward.

Regardless of sturdy headwinds, Bitcoin managed to drift above $30,000, a psychological help stage and is at the moment again above $35,000. Nevertheless, the equally sturdy resistance stage at $40,000 is maintaining the cryptocurrency’s short-term bearish bias intact.

“One expects that the longer we go and not using a $40,000-handle, ultimately help goes to crumble and provides technique to a pointy transfer in direction of $20,000,” Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets, told the Wall Street Journal, noting that it leaves Bitcoin at crossroads within the third quarter.

TradingShot added:

“Have all of the destructive fundamentals priced in already? We won’t know for certain but when they’ve, the Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI undoubtedly exhibits one thing.”

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the creator and don’t essentially mirror the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you must conduct your personal analysis when making a choice.